JBD

SO, BIG MOUTH, WHAT'S YOUR PREDICTION?

As Booger would say, "Yaddaknow."

As I asserted previously, the polls are useless, and even though they are probably 5-10% skewed towards Obama, he should still have enough margin to win easily. All the in-the-tank pundits are predicting landslide for Obama, 350-plus electoral votes. I think it will be closer to 310, with 52-48 on the popular.

If it is any closer than that, say Obama with fewer than 300 EVs, similar to the Bush-Kerry split but in reverse, and there are ongoing voter fraud lawsuits like 2000, it would have to be considered a loss for Obama, and his administration would be crippled and weak from the beginning.

Actual numbers depend on:

•   Weather - would probably suppress Obama popular vote more than McCain, but unless there are day-long blizzard conditions in Columbus, Kansas City, Denver, Des Moines, Pitsburgh, Philly and Washington DC (Northern VA), and a hurricane in North Carolina, don't count on it. Both campaigns have massive GOTV programs to get people to the polls regardless of weather, indigence, lack of ID, or lack of transportation.
•    Voter fraud - if there is proven massive fraud in swing states (and all the indications are that there will be) then lawsuits could spoil the party for a while. My guess is that McCain would fold instead of litigate. But I do predict that the ongoing revelation of exactly how bad the voter fraud for Obama is this year will taint his election and cause him problems for years to come.
•    Obama "astroturfing" - there has been a paid, coordinated effort by the Obama campaign to have supporters visit web sites and leave comments pretending that they are lifelong Republicans who will either vote Obama, or who will stay home because they won't vote for McCain-Palin. This is designed to suppress the McCain turnout.
•    Obama triumphalism - Obama supporters who think it's so in the bag that they won't actually vote. This is typical of the "youth" vote cohort - they poll big, but vote small.
  
•    The Bradley effect - This thoroughly debunked "covert racism" defense that posits that people tell pollsters they will vote for a black candidate because they don't want to be thought racist, but who actually vote otherwise in the privacy of the voting booth.
•    PUMAs - Party Unity My Ass - They wanted Hillary, they got Obama, and were told to shut up and play along with the gag. Are they counted into Obama's margins? Will they wear the pin and sticker their bumpers for Obama but vote McCain? Or even just not vote the top of the ticket at all, further hosing the "exit poll" mayhem on election day? Or is this whole thing just Republican astroturfing? See Booger, above.
•    Underestimating McCain, either because of liberal bias, or because the target voter market and the national media market are nearly mutually exclusive.
  

I don't think there will be a filibuster-proof super-majority for Democrats in the Senate, but that won't slow them down any. Look for 2 or 3 liberal Supremes (Ginzburg and Stevens for sure, Breyer & Souter maybe) to retire as soon as Obama is crowned, so they can pack the court while the packing is good.

UPDATE: Lots more on the pitfalls and psychology of polling here.

Posted by: JBD at 02:41 PM | Comments (1) | Add Comment
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