November 25, 2008
CUE THE JOADS? NOT HARDLY.
This post at Instapundit brings up the possibility of famine caused by our current financial straits. Putting aside the goofy "manna from Heaven" angle, why should any kind of financial meltdown cause famine?
Let's run down the main causes of famine, and see which of these will come about because Citigroup defaults or GM goes bankrupt:
Overall, I think food prices will come down with the cost of oil, and with people spending more of their limited cash on simple luxuries like barbecues, bake sales and ice cream (always a recession favorite) and less on gizmos and gadgets and gas guzzlers.
So eat up - there will be plenty.
Comments are disabled.
Post is locked.
Let's run down the main causes of famine, and see which of these will come about because Citigroup defaults or GM goes bankrupt:
War - This is an African specialty. Populations living on subsistence farming are driven from their homes by advancing hostilities, and become refugees in an area with no arable land, ready water, seed, fertilizer, etc. If things get really bad here in America, the worst we'll see in the way of militant action will be a union tantrum here and there, or a hippie-filled street protest, but nothing close to war, civil or otherwise, is possible. Especially with Their Man in the White House, the liberals and radicals will forebear. Everybody else will just work harder and share what they have, like Americans always do in the face of adversity.
Weather - Pace Al Gore, unless we get dramatic changes in climate starting right now, crop yields due to freezes, frost, heat waves, etc. in the next 5 years should be no different than the previous. And even if Gore is somehow correct (and he is not) global climate change may actually increase the North American growing season, and reduce the number of frosts and droughts. The only thing for sure about the weather is that we have no earthly idea what it will be. Anyway, why would shuttering Chrysler have any affect on weather?
Pestilence - Ditto above. What will change? Will the credit crunch make it harder to get fertilizer and insecticide, or will plummeting oil prices actually make them cheaper? Is there something about closing Bear Stearns or pink-slipping GM employees that increases the fecundity of grasshoppers or causes potato blight?
Drought - Reduced industrial output and a shrunken financial sector are not usually seen as harbingers of drought. On the contrary, increased focus on the basics of life should actually encourage better farming practices and soil conservation, and make more capital available to productive farmers. And if things do start getting dry for some reason, the easiest way to loosen up water resources is suspend whacko environmental rules, like those restricting water use in the Sacramento Delta becuae some invisible fish might get a sunburn. If you're still worried, water shortages may finally push us into nuclear powered or nanotube desalination and Israeli-style water conservation on farms (which is were most of our potable water is used), both of which would be beneficial long-term investments.
So where is all this talk of famine coming from? How could reduced financial activity cause food shortages in an efficient market? Beats me - I guess I'll have to keep an eye out for a good reason. Can you think of any?Weather - Pace Al Gore, unless we get dramatic changes in climate starting right now, crop yields due to freezes, frost, heat waves, etc. in the next 5 years should be no different than the previous. And even if Gore is somehow correct (and he is not) global climate change may actually increase the North American growing season, and reduce the number of frosts and droughts. The only thing for sure about the weather is that we have no earthly idea what it will be. Anyway, why would shuttering Chrysler have any affect on weather?
Pestilence - Ditto above. What will change? Will the credit crunch make it harder to get fertilizer and insecticide, or will plummeting oil prices actually make them cheaper? Is there something about closing Bear Stearns or pink-slipping GM employees that increases the fecundity of grasshoppers or causes potato blight?
Drought - Reduced industrial output and a shrunken financial sector are not usually seen as harbingers of drought. On the contrary, increased focus on the basics of life should actually encourage better farming practices and soil conservation, and make more capital available to productive farmers. And if things do start getting dry for some reason, the easiest way to loosen up water resources is suspend whacko environmental rules, like those restricting water use in the Sacramento Delta becuae some invisible fish might get a sunburn. If you're still worried, water shortages may finally push us into nuclear powered or nanotube desalination and Israeli-style water conservation on farms (which is were most of our potable water is used), both of which would be beneficial long-term investments.
Overall, I think food prices will come down with the cost of oil, and with people spending more of their limited cash on simple luxuries like barbecues, bake sales and ice cream (always a recession favorite) and less on gizmos and gadgets and gas guzzlers.
So eat up - there will be plenty.
Posted by: JBD at
12:21 PM
| No Comments
| Add Comment
Post contains 536 words, total size 4 kb.
8kb generated in CPU 0.0073, elapsed 0.0317 seconds.
23 queries taking 0.0271 seconds, 28 records returned.
Powered by Minx 1.1.6c-pink.
23 queries taking 0.0271 seconds, 28 records returned.
Powered by Minx 1.1.6c-pink.