September 29, 2008
ENCOURAGING FINANCIAL DATA
From Ace.
I'm liking the idea of leaving the market to its own devices more and more.
I'm liking the idea of leaving the market to its own devices more and more.
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AND THAT'S ANOTHER REASON
Financial meltdown will end all talk of carbon restrictions to battle "global warming".
Again, people focus on essentials when stressed. All the Al Gore posturing and Kyoto targets and carbon footprinting gets heaved over the side when the 401K goes south.
Drill, baby, drill!
Again, people focus on essentials when stressed. All the Al Gore posturing and Kyoto targets and carbon footprinting gets heaved over the side when the 401K goes south.
Drill, baby, drill!
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ONE OF MY HEROES HAS CANCER AND LIVES TO JOKE ABOUT IT
P.J. O'Rourke, the modern reincarnation of Mark Twain.
My advice to you, PJ, is to drink heavily.
My advice to you, PJ, is to drink heavily.
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NOT SO GRANDIOSE AFTER ALL
After finishing my rant, below, about how the government should act at this time of crisis, I read this informed and coherent piece that sounds many of the same themes.
Yes, this also shows that the real world is much more complicated than I make it sound, but the answers and methods are indeed simple, as this writer ably demonstrates.
Yes, this also shows that the real world is much more complicated than I make it sound, but the answers and methods are indeed simple, as this writer ably demonstrates.
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NO BAILOUT? NO PROBLEM!
Having trundled out my pompous cure-all for the economy below, now it's time for me to list those reasons why I think the darker scenarios are actually not so dark.
Oil prices will crash, making everything cheaper right when we need it most. Alternative energy research will continue, because growing countries will alwyas want more sources. And drill, baby, drill.
Normal people will be affected in numbers great enough so that their voices will be heard above the usual bleatings of the professional minoritarians and poverty pimps. This means the huge middle of the electorate will finally be agitated enough to demand true reform. Once motivated, this cohort of otherwise content and mostly disengaged citizens will out-shout the ACORNers and MoveOns and PETAS and furry anarchists. And once they find out who has been funding these groups with their tax money and tax-free contributions, the gravy train will end, and the 60s will finally be over.
What politicians are most afraid of is that the people will find out that they can live better and solve their own problems without Washington. This crisis is a golden opportunity for this very thing. If the market can work its way out of this on its own, while Congress is out of session, people will realize that Congress is the problem, not the solution.
If the pain is bad enough, the people who caused the pain will run out of places to hide, and they will finally be called to account. I would not rule out tar & feathers for Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, and their ilk. That they are still able to show their faces without fear means the hurt has not yet hit.
True reformers can pitch smaller, simpler government to these newly attentive voters, and can set metrics against which they can be held accountable.
And speaking of true reforms, here are mine:
Oil prices will crash, making everything cheaper right when we need it most. Alternative energy research will continue, because growing countries will alwyas want more sources. And drill, baby, drill.
Normal people will be affected in numbers great enough so that their voices will be heard above the usual bleatings of the professional minoritarians and poverty pimps. This means the huge middle of the electorate will finally be agitated enough to demand true reform. Once motivated, this cohort of otherwise content and mostly disengaged citizens will out-shout the ACORNers and MoveOns and PETAS and furry anarchists. And once they find out who has been funding these groups with their tax money and tax-free contributions, the gravy train will end, and the 60s will finally be over.
What politicians are most afraid of is that the people will find out that they can live better and solve their own problems without Washington. This crisis is a golden opportunity for this very thing. If the market can work its way out of this on its own, while Congress is out of session, people will realize that Congress is the problem, not the solution.
If the pain is bad enough, the people who caused the pain will run out of places to hide, and they will finally be called to account. I would not rule out tar & feathers for Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, and their ilk. That they are still able to show their faces without fear means the hurt has not yet hit.
True reformers can pitch smaller, simpler government to these newly attentive voters, and can set metrics against which they can be held accountable.
And speaking of true reforms, here are mine:
Throw out the current income tax law and all the charitable and mortgage deductions, and institute a per capita "head tax" to be paid by the states & territories, which the states can collect in any way their voters allow. Alaska? They make enough on oil & gas revenues to cover their internal needs as well as the per-person Fed tax, so no sales, property or income taxes are levied. Connecticut? 12% sales taxes, heavy property taxes, value-added taxes on out-of-state businesses, etc. You don't like it? Move.
Separate the essential Federal government services from discretionary spending, and put discretionary spending on indefinite hold, to be funded only after social security, public pensions, and non-asset-based debts are retired. Discretionary spending includes all forms of Federal income redistribution - subsidies, poverty programs, education, research, etc.
Shrink the military bureaucracy, and fund only deployable assets and the overhead to support and continually upgrade them. Carriers good; Pentagon pencil pushers, bad.
Public employee unions are abolished.
100% privatization of social security, pensions, health plans, etc. All public employee pensions and benefit plans should be sold to the highest bidders, usually insurance companies, who will then restructure benefits to industry norms. Participants who don't like the deal they are offered will be cashed out pro-rata their contributions. Existing Retirees get the McMahon plan.
So who's first? Me, personally, I'd like to see Henry Waxman with a marlin hook through his monstrous nostrils, hanging from a DC cherry tree, just low enough so that passers by can whack him like a Buddhist prayer wheel.Separate the essential Federal government services from discretionary spending, and put discretionary spending on indefinite hold, to be funded only after social security, public pensions, and non-asset-based debts are retired. Discretionary spending includes all forms of Federal income redistribution - subsidies, poverty programs, education, research, etc.
Shrink the military bureaucracy, and fund only deployable assets and the overhead to support and continually upgrade them. Carriers good; Pentagon pencil pushers, bad.
Public employee unions are abolished.
100% privatization of social security, pensions, health plans, etc. All public employee pensions and benefit plans should be sold to the highest bidders, usually insurance companies, who will then restructure benefits to industry norms. Participants who don't like the deal they are offered will be cashed out pro-rata their contributions. Existing Retirees get the McMahon plan.
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BAILOUT BABYLON
So, we DON'T have a deal.
Actually, I'm glad. My dear departed Old Man said many times in his life, when reflecting on wasteful or frivolous spending, "What this country needs is a damn good Depression!"
The Chief and I came to pretty much the same conclusion while chewing the fat after work tonight. The Chief is an experienced and astute businessman, one who has both won and lost risking his own money. We concluded that maybe it's time we learned to live our parents lifestyle for a while. Our cars should last us 8-10 years, not 3 or 4. We should skip the fancy built-in BBQ, the French doors, and other unnecessary upgrades on the house that we used to finance on a whim against diaphanous home equity. We need to save and invest conservatively, rather than speculating on stuff we don't know.
OK, fine, belt-tightening, sure. But what's my big idea to fix all this? People who know me know that I don't shy away from grandiose pronunciamentos that I nevertheless realize could never come true. But the process of talking them through is sometimes amusing and always instructive. What brought this next idea out of the fog and into the light was something the Chief said, which he learned from his Old Man - invest only in things you know and understand - stay away from things you don't know.
In that spirit, I offer this scenario:
Assume we go another two days (which is the current plan) with no action from Congress. Assume also that during this time, we have a stock market meltdown of Biblical proportions. We lost 750+ points today after the deal tanked. Lets say we double that tomorrow, and double it again the day after - 1,500 points followed by 3,000 - putting us at about 6,000 at the close of the market Wednesday - a loss of about 50% from the historic high.
Now everybody knows the assets behind the market are worth more than that, just like everybody knows that the assets behind the distressed sub-primes and Mortgage Based Securities are actually worth more than what the buyouts and takeovers have reflected. The now-failed Fed bailout was designed to allow the market players the time and cover they needed to confidently restate the core values of these assets by covering the really bad investments with Fed credit in the meantime.
Problem is, bringing the government into this process is creeping socialism, making it easier for the next time, encouraging politicians to become managers and arbiters of who wins and loses in the market. This is the way Europe works. All the big-money sectors in the EU - finance, health care, pension, insurance, etc - are run by the government, through which they control everything else. It's why they have 15% unemployment - it's cheaper and simpler to warehouse people like farm animals rather than finding them jobs and making the productive. It's also why they prefer their negative birth rate demographics - fewer kids, less money on schools, housing, etc. With the exception of immigrants, they are rapidly evolving into a nation of bachelors and spinsters, soon to disappear as a people entirely, replaced by the "asians" from India and the Middle East.
No thanks.
Now since the property re-assessment can't happen in the next two days, the bailout won't ever be needed. And, even better, neither will Congress. After the crash, the market can take all the time it wants to re-establish believable asset values. But the downside is that cash, credit, jobs, sales, purchases, shipments, etc. will all grind to a halt while panicked buyers and sellers enter the financial thunderdome to battle over the core values. And every news camera and microphone in the country will be in front of some sob-sister singing the blues about how she lost her house that she had no business buying in the first place.
So I propose that the President and his advisers pick a Dow number - let's say it's 7,500 - at which point Bush declares a national emergency on his authority as President, and orders the equity markets closed until Monday the 6th. (Can he do this, legally? Yaddoknow - but I'm assuming he can - he could invoke FDR for cover - that'll piss everybody off).
He then picks a small group of advisers that he knows are competent, and who he trusts to tell him the truth. I would suggest, among others, turnaround expert Mitt Romney, and ecomomists Walter Williams and Thomas Sowell, and wire-puller extraordinaire Newt Gingrich (no admirer of Bush) . They should make a short list of essential market sectors that are fundamentally sound, and then announce that the Fed will provide all the liquidity needed to keep these operations moving. Those markets, and the banks and financial institutions that support them, will open Monday.
This would include agriculture, manufacturing, transportation, retail and most private services - everything essential to life and growth. The panel of advisors would make judgments on a case-by-case basis. Remaining frozen would be real estate, stock market, insurance companies, and other credit based or real-estate based industries. Basically, anybody not spending their own money on day-to-day living activities. No new mortgages, stock trades, buy-outs, M&A, etc. Consider it a big “Time Out†for a misbehaving child
He will also furlough at reduced wages all non-essential Fed employees, and urge the state governors to do the same. Since the Fed is already on a continuing budget resolution, he can keep this going as long as needed to save cash. I believe it should last through Christmas and into New Year, giving all the non-productive federal employees a taste of what the rest of the market economy has always lived with - layoffs and uncertainty. This will also demonstrate that he is serious about concentrating on a fix above all other non-essential activities. The sooner the fix is done, the sooner everybody comes back to work.
In the three months between now and New Year, the advisors will evaluate and re-set all real property values, essentially assessing and benchmarking the core value of every private property in the country. They would work with the insurance companies (who already know pretty much everything needed about all properties) and look back in recent history (back before sub-primes were authorized by Fannie Mae - around 2003) - and find a point in the history of each market where the property values were well substantiated.
The Chief was especially good about how to do this right - start with the raw land value (determined as explained above) then add the cost to replace the building and landscape - essentially, the dollar amount the insurance company would have paid for the improvements on the land had they been wiped clean. An inflation factor would then be added to this value to establish a mid-point market value in current dollars.
Once this benchmark value had been established, all properties that had performing mortgages, or were owned outright, or were otherwise not financially distressed, would be re-assessed at these values, and then released back to the market for sale, refinance, etc. on Jan 1, 2009.
However, new mortgages on these properties could be offered only under rigidly conservative formulas, what used to be known as "compliant" with the reasonable Fannie Mae rules in the 80's - let's say 25% minimum down payment (75% max loan to value), with income verification so that the loan & property tax payment is no more than 25% of gross income, etc. Mortgages outside these parameters would be considered strictly speculative, and ineligible for financing through financial institutions, only through individuals.
For all the non-performing properties, the team of advisers will come up with a selection of settlement packages from which the interested parties will have to choose – convert mortgages to leases, straight foreclosure at reassessed value, market auction, etc. Anything except a new mortgage to the current non-performing owner. Any proceeds from auctions, foreclosures, leases etc would be shared pro-rata by all interested parties.
So if Mr. Slick Investment Banker is holding paper with a face value of $500K for a ¼ interest in a property now bench marked at $200,000, he can chose to convert it to a ¼ participation in lease income, or auction proceeds, or take it as a loss in foreclosure. Note – only the re-assessed value will be eligible for losses, not the original paper value.
Once this mess is completely brought to current status, the team of advisers steps down, and the emergency is declared over. With everybody involved focused solely on getting this done, this process should be complete by New Years, and the market goes back to normal.
Bush has nothing to lose doing this. He’s a lame duck, with no influence on the election, and couldn’t be hated any more than he already is. This would be a great service to the country, and would be a fitting capstone to his otherwise pretty good presidency.
With Bush handling the financial problems, the people can concentrate on the causes of the problem, and focus on electing those who will not repeat it. This would be a golden opportunity for McCain to step up and promise to do the same thing with Social Security and pension funds, which are a problem many times greater in magnitude than this credit crunch.
But he won’t. Obama will win, the socialists will make their play to create a managed economy, and the ensuing political war will finally allow us to throw off the burdens of the New Deal, the Great Society, and the madness of the political & media elites.
Or maybe it’ll be the 1930’s all over again - Hobo City for 10 years, and then a world war with China.
God help us all.
Actually, I'm glad. My dear departed Old Man said many times in his life, when reflecting on wasteful or frivolous spending, "What this country needs is a damn good Depression!"
The Chief and I came to pretty much the same conclusion while chewing the fat after work tonight. The Chief is an experienced and astute businessman, one who has both won and lost risking his own money. We concluded that maybe it's time we learned to live our parents lifestyle for a while. Our cars should last us 8-10 years, not 3 or 4. We should skip the fancy built-in BBQ, the French doors, and other unnecessary upgrades on the house that we used to finance on a whim against diaphanous home equity. We need to save and invest conservatively, rather than speculating on stuff we don't know.
OK, fine, belt-tightening, sure. But what's my big idea to fix all this? People who know me know that I don't shy away from grandiose pronunciamentos that I nevertheless realize could never come true. But the process of talking them through is sometimes amusing and always instructive. What brought this next idea out of the fog and into the light was something the Chief said, which he learned from his Old Man - invest only in things you know and understand - stay away from things you don't know.
In that spirit, I offer this scenario:
Assume we go another two days (which is the current plan) with no action from Congress. Assume also that during this time, we have a stock market meltdown of Biblical proportions. We lost 750+ points today after the deal tanked. Lets say we double that tomorrow, and double it again the day after - 1,500 points followed by 3,000 - putting us at about 6,000 at the close of the market Wednesday - a loss of about 50% from the historic high.
Now everybody knows the assets behind the market are worth more than that, just like everybody knows that the assets behind the distressed sub-primes and Mortgage Based Securities are actually worth more than what the buyouts and takeovers have reflected. The now-failed Fed bailout was designed to allow the market players the time and cover they needed to confidently restate the core values of these assets by covering the really bad investments with Fed credit in the meantime.
Problem is, bringing the government into this process is creeping socialism, making it easier for the next time, encouraging politicians to become managers and arbiters of who wins and loses in the market. This is the way Europe works. All the big-money sectors in the EU - finance, health care, pension, insurance, etc - are run by the government, through which they control everything else. It's why they have 15% unemployment - it's cheaper and simpler to warehouse people like farm animals rather than finding them jobs and making the productive. It's also why they prefer their negative birth rate demographics - fewer kids, less money on schools, housing, etc. With the exception of immigrants, they are rapidly evolving into a nation of bachelors and spinsters, soon to disappear as a people entirely, replaced by the "asians" from India and the Middle East.
No thanks.
Now since the property re-assessment can't happen in the next two days, the bailout won't ever be needed. And, even better, neither will Congress. After the crash, the market can take all the time it wants to re-establish believable asset values. But the downside is that cash, credit, jobs, sales, purchases, shipments, etc. will all grind to a halt while panicked buyers and sellers enter the financial thunderdome to battle over the core values. And every news camera and microphone in the country will be in front of some sob-sister singing the blues about how she lost her house that she had no business buying in the first place.
So I propose that the President and his advisers pick a Dow number - let's say it's 7,500 - at which point Bush declares a national emergency on his authority as President, and orders the equity markets closed until Monday the 6th. (Can he do this, legally? Yaddoknow - but I'm assuming he can - he could invoke FDR for cover - that'll piss everybody off).
He then picks a small group of advisers that he knows are competent, and who he trusts to tell him the truth. I would suggest, among others, turnaround expert Mitt Romney, and ecomomists Walter Williams and Thomas Sowell, and wire-puller extraordinaire Newt Gingrich (no admirer of Bush) . They should make a short list of essential market sectors that are fundamentally sound, and then announce that the Fed will provide all the liquidity needed to keep these operations moving. Those markets, and the banks and financial institutions that support them, will open Monday.
This would include agriculture, manufacturing, transportation, retail and most private services - everything essential to life and growth. The panel of advisors would make judgments on a case-by-case basis. Remaining frozen would be real estate, stock market, insurance companies, and other credit based or real-estate based industries. Basically, anybody not spending their own money on day-to-day living activities. No new mortgages, stock trades, buy-outs, M&A, etc. Consider it a big “Time Out†for a misbehaving child
He will also furlough at reduced wages all non-essential Fed employees, and urge the state governors to do the same. Since the Fed is already on a continuing budget resolution, he can keep this going as long as needed to save cash. I believe it should last through Christmas and into New Year, giving all the non-productive federal employees a taste of what the rest of the market economy has always lived with - layoffs and uncertainty. This will also demonstrate that he is serious about concentrating on a fix above all other non-essential activities. The sooner the fix is done, the sooner everybody comes back to work.
In the three months between now and New Year, the advisors will evaluate and re-set all real property values, essentially assessing and benchmarking the core value of every private property in the country. They would work with the insurance companies (who already know pretty much everything needed about all properties) and look back in recent history (back before sub-primes were authorized by Fannie Mae - around 2003) - and find a point in the history of each market where the property values were well substantiated.
The Chief was especially good about how to do this right - start with the raw land value (determined as explained above) then add the cost to replace the building and landscape - essentially, the dollar amount the insurance company would have paid for the improvements on the land had they been wiped clean. An inflation factor would then be added to this value to establish a mid-point market value in current dollars.
Once this benchmark value had been established, all properties that had performing mortgages, or were owned outright, or were otherwise not financially distressed, would be re-assessed at these values, and then released back to the market for sale, refinance, etc. on Jan 1, 2009.
However, new mortgages on these properties could be offered only under rigidly conservative formulas, what used to be known as "compliant" with the reasonable Fannie Mae rules in the 80's - let's say 25% minimum down payment (75% max loan to value), with income verification so that the loan & property tax payment is no more than 25% of gross income, etc. Mortgages outside these parameters would be considered strictly speculative, and ineligible for financing through financial institutions, only through individuals.
For all the non-performing properties, the team of advisers will come up with a selection of settlement packages from which the interested parties will have to choose – convert mortgages to leases, straight foreclosure at reassessed value, market auction, etc. Anything except a new mortgage to the current non-performing owner. Any proceeds from auctions, foreclosures, leases etc would be shared pro-rata by all interested parties.
So if Mr. Slick Investment Banker is holding paper with a face value of $500K for a ¼ interest in a property now bench marked at $200,000, he can chose to convert it to a ¼ participation in lease income, or auction proceeds, or take it as a loss in foreclosure. Note – only the re-assessed value will be eligible for losses, not the original paper value.
Once this mess is completely brought to current status, the team of advisers steps down, and the emergency is declared over. With everybody involved focused solely on getting this done, this process should be complete by New Years, and the market goes back to normal.
Bush has nothing to lose doing this. He’s a lame duck, with no influence on the election, and couldn’t be hated any more than he already is. This would be a great service to the country, and would be a fitting capstone to his otherwise pretty good presidency.
With Bush handling the financial problems, the people can concentrate on the causes of the problem, and focus on electing those who will not repeat it. This would be a golden opportunity for McCain to step up and promise to do the same thing with Social Security and pension funds, which are a problem many times greater in magnitude than this credit crunch.
But he won’t. Obama will win, the socialists will make their play to create a managed economy, and the ensuing political war will finally allow us to throw off the burdens of the New Deal, the Great Society, and the madness of the political & media elites.
Or maybe it’ll be the 1930’s all over again - Hobo City for 10 years, and then a world war with China.
God help us all.
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THE BAILOUT IS JUST THE END OF THE BEGINNING
Now that we have a plan, things should get back to normal, though at a reduced level, with a true recession now certain.
So far, the people who caused this - Senator Dodd, Rep Barney Frank, and the rest of the Democrats who parlayed Clinton's 1995 expansion of the Community Reinvestment Act into a cash cow for their cronies and supporting activists - have not properly been called to account for the mayhem they have caused.
In fact, these wretched wannabe machers were key participants in the bailout negotiations, trying even now to add earmarks for corrupt groups like ACORN, and still trying to subsidize mortgages so that people who can't afford them can still get them. And then vote for the Democrat who got them their subsidy, of course.
Here's an excellent summary of the causes of our current crisis, the people who caused it, the attempts made by Bush, McCain and others to prevent it, and the ongoing risks. After you watch that video, you can appreciate my feeling that those who caused the problem have not yet been made to account for thie actions.
Bad as this was, the hurt hasn't hit yet, and when it does, no one will connect the hurt to the source. We need Obama to win, so he can lead us into further chaos, and then we can well and truly reform DC. This bailout reforms nothing, only slows down, delays or otherwise provides cover for subsequent programs just as bad as the ones that caused this mess.
Review your budgets, and start cutting back now - we did. You ain't seen nothin' yet. Julian Simon, pray for us.
So far, the people who caused this - Senator Dodd, Rep Barney Frank, and the rest of the Democrats who parlayed Clinton's 1995 expansion of the Community Reinvestment Act into a cash cow for their cronies and supporting activists - have not properly been called to account for the mayhem they have caused.
In fact, these wretched wannabe machers were key participants in the bailout negotiations, trying even now to add earmarks for corrupt groups like ACORN, and still trying to subsidize mortgages so that people who can't afford them can still get them. And then vote for the Democrat who got them their subsidy, of course.
Here's an excellent summary of the causes of our current crisis, the people who caused it, the attempts made by Bush, McCain and others to prevent it, and the ongoing risks. After you watch that video, you can appreciate my feeling that those who caused the problem have not yet been made to account for thie actions.
Bad as this was, the hurt hasn't hit yet, and when it does, no one will connect the hurt to the source. We need Obama to win, so he can lead us into further chaos, and then we can well and truly reform DC. This bailout reforms nothing, only slows down, delays or otherwise provides cover for subsequent programs just as bad as the ones that caused this mess.
Review your budgets, and start cutting back now - we did. You ain't seen nothin' yet. Julian Simon, pray for us.
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September 28, 2008
DEBATE? A DRAW, AND TIE GOES TO THE WHINER.
Obama was defensive, and made some questionable comments, and overplayed his "I agree with John" jiu-jitsu tactic, but to a non-committed voter, he sounded knowledgeable & reasonable, and that's all he needs at this point.
McCain did fine, had some shaky comments, wandered away from the subject, and waxed stentorian too many times for my taste, and may still have technically "won" the debate.
But this non-decisive debate, coupled with Palin's C-minus showing with Katie Couric, pretty much seals the deal for Obama. He leads in the polls by a good 5 points now, and should stay there, or even stretch to 7 or 8. If he can keep Biden under the radar (the press will help) and repeat this performance at the next two debates, he's in.
Of course, anything can happen, yadda-yadda. It won't. Obama wins Nov 4.
Then let the real mayhem begin.
McCain did fine, had some shaky comments, wandered away from the subject, and waxed stentorian too many times for my taste, and may still have technically "won" the debate.
But this non-decisive debate, coupled with Palin's C-minus showing with Katie Couric, pretty much seals the deal for Obama. He leads in the polls by a good 5 points now, and should stay there, or even stretch to 7 or 8. If he can keep Biden under the radar (the press will help) and repeat this performance at the next two debates, he's in.
Of course, anything can happen, yadda-yadda. It won't. Obama wins Nov 4.
Then let the real mayhem begin.
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LET SARAH BE SARAH
Never-elected CNN spokesdrunk Jack Cafferty gives voice, aid, comfort, and what amounts to an in-kind contribution to Obama with a brash shove-in-the chest challenge to the McCain campaign over Sarah Palin's supposed lack of preparedness to be "one 72-year-old heartbeat away" from the Presidency.
He uses as his coup de grace an excerpt from Palin's interview with Katie Couric. Scares the hell out of him, she does. He's OK with Pelosi, Reid, Dodd, Frank and the rest of the bona-fide morons who caused our current financial crisis. But dammit, old Jack is going to tell it like it is, no matter the consequences, brave journalist that he is.
Granted, Sarah's answer is mostly incoherent, and that's due, in part, to her cramming for the VP debate this week, and to the pressure on her to spout the McCain campaign message rather than just answering the goddamn question.
And what a bull moose whopper of a "question" Katie comes up with. She forwards the same plan as the guy below, and asks Sarah why don't we simply spend the money on the poor, sick, elderly, children, etc. instead of on the Wall Street fatcats.
Couric's lucky Sarah didn't laugh in her face and say, "Sure Katie, let's just give the money to the poor, and then they won't be poor any more! We'll call it "The New Deal"! Or how about "The Great Society!" Or even "The Community Reinvestment Act!"
No excuses, though. Sarah looked bad, and the merciless press is jubilant. Joe Biden can commit a gaffe a minute and not scare them at all, but Sarah's game attempt to encapsulate a seminar's worth of talking points into two paragraphs in response to a 'when did you stop beating your Eskimo' type question, hell, that shakes them to their very cores.
Well, in the spirit of 'get right back on the horseface that threw ya', I guess Sarah isn't afraid of Katie, since she's going back for follow-up interviews this week.
All links courtesy National Review Online's excellent group blog - the Corner. If you're a liberal and would like a good, coherent, reasonable reading on the state of mind of Republicans in general and conservatives in particular, this is a great place to visit.
By no means do I agree with everything they post (I'm looking your way, Lowry - any dogs get wet during Gustav?) and some of the posters are occasionally incoherent (Lopez, how do you call yourself an editor - read your posts out loud before you post them - the world can await your brilliance. And Brookhiser! King of the non-sequiturs, suffering from tweed poisoning and haunted by Founders trivia), and they are a little too dialed in to the DC and NYC media and careerist politicos for my taste (Lowry again, and Kudlow - how's that Goldilocks economy running, Larry?), but they immediately and publicly acknowledge and correct any errors, and go out of their way to hear out all sides.
Wish I could find an equivalent liberal site. TPM is OK, but kinda full of itself and mostly obsessed with who-cares scandals like AG Gonzales and his firing of some AAGs. Yawn.
And no fair comparing them to me. I'm a moron, and I admit it. My blog is a tic, not an avocation or business.
He uses as his coup de grace an excerpt from Palin's interview with Katie Couric. Scares the hell out of him, she does. He's OK with Pelosi, Reid, Dodd, Frank and the rest of the bona-fide morons who caused our current financial crisis. But dammit, old Jack is going to tell it like it is, no matter the consequences, brave journalist that he is.
Granted, Sarah's answer is mostly incoherent, and that's due, in part, to her cramming for the VP debate this week, and to the pressure on her to spout the McCain campaign message rather than just answering the goddamn question.
And what a bull moose whopper of a "question" Katie comes up with. She forwards the same plan as the guy below, and asks Sarah why don't we simply spend the money on the poor, sick, elderly, children, etc. instead of on the Wall Street fatcats.
Couric's lucky Sarah didn't laugh in her face and say, "Sure Katie, let's just give the money to the poor, and then they won't be poor any more! We'll call it "The New Deal"! Or how about "The Great Society!" Or even "The Community Reinvestment Act!"
No excuses, though. Sarah looked bad, and the merciless press is jubilant. Joe Biden can commit a gaffe a minute and not scare them at all, but Sarah's game attempt to encapsulate a seminar's worth of talking points into two paragraphs in response to a 'when did you stop beating your Eskimo' type question, hell, that shakes them to their very cores.
Well, in the spirit of 'get right back on the horseface that threw ya', I guess Sarah isn't afraid of Katie, since she's going back for follow-up interviews this week.
All links courtesy National Review Online's excellent group blog - the Corner. If you're a liberal and would like a good, coherent, reasonable reading on the state of mind of Republicans in general and conservatives in particular, this is a great place to visit.
By no means do I agree with everything they post (I'm looking your way, Lowry - any dogs get wet during Gustav?) and some of the posters are occasionally incoherent (Lopez, how do you call yourself an editor - read your posts out loud before you post them - the world can await your brilliance. And Brookhiser! King of the non-sequiturs, suffering from tweed poisoning and haunted by Founders trivia), and they are a little too dialed in to the DC and NYC media and careerist politicos for my taste (Lowry again, and Kudlow - how's that Goldilocks economy running, Larry?), but they immediately and publicly acknowledge and correct any errors, and go out of their way to hear out all sides.
Wish I could find an equivalent liberal site. TPM is OK, but kinda full of itself and mostly obsessed with who-cares scandals like AG Gonzales and his firing of some AAGs. Yawn.
And no fair comparing them to me. I'm a moron, and I admit it. My blog is a tic, not an avocation or business.
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LINKS OF INTEREST, IPSE DIXIT
My blogging habit is to copy links to articles I find interesting or noteworthy, then paste them into an open Word document, where I compose my posts before pasting them into the post window on the web site and hitting "publish." [Fascinating, I know - you'd never have guessed, right?]
Problem is, I let them sit, and they get stale, or overtaken by events. So this post is an attempt to clean up some of the backlog. This is also know by it's shorthand name - sloth.
Re: my belief that the worst is yet to come - beware the pension wars.
Here is the first shot.
And dig this old-fashioned pulpit-pounder - the drumbeat.
Barack Obama's e-mail. Warning - Dick Cheney is involved, so earthy Anglo-Saxon epithets abound.
Future President of the United States Bobby Jindal demonstrates the Vital Factor method - managing by metrics.
Theme to the movie "Shaft" - by ukulele orchestra.
Newt's take on the bailouts, a week before the deal - fix it, don't paint over it.
Now compare this WSJ tick-tock published the same day - did they get it right?
The ACORN does not fall far from the tree - no honor among thieves. So bad that even the people in Pitsburgh noticed!
The God particle, AKA making it up as you go along. FINALLY, I get my goddamn flyin' car!
Sent by Looie - Gary Coleman returns to the Stoney Lonesome. The depth of my sadness is manifest. Such tragedy visits only the great ones. Damn those bowling alleys - when will they finally ban them? And, Gary, dude, Utah?! Think you stick out there, or what?
Awesome! A Flex-fuel FunBus! In Brazil, alas.
Thomas Friedman, in the throes of promoting a book, beclowns himself.
Problem is, I let them sit, and they get stale, or overtaken by events. So this post is an attempt to clean up some of the backlog. This is also know by it's shorthand name - sloth.
Re: my belief that the worst is yet to come - beware the pension wars.
Here is the first shot.
And dig this old-fashioned pulpit-pounder - the drumbeat.
Barack Obama's e-mail. Warning - Dick Cheney is involved, so earthy Anglo-Saxon epithets abound.
Future President of the United States Bobby Jindal demonstrates the Vital Factor method - managing by metrics.
Theme to the movie "Shaft" - by ukulele orchestra.
Newt's take on the bailouts, a week before the deal - fix it, don't paint over it.
Now compare this WSJ tick-tock published the same day - did they get it right?
The ACORN does not fall far from the tree - no honor among thieves. So bad that even the people in Pitsburgh noticed!
The God particle, AKA making it up as you go along. FINALLY, I get my goddamn flyin' car!
Sent by Looie - Gary Coleman returns to the Stoney Lonesome. The depth of my sadness is manifest. Such tragedy visits only the great ones. Damn those bowling alleys - when will they finally ban them? And, Gary, dude, Utah?! Think you stick out there, or what?
Awesome! A Flex-fuel FunBus! In Brazil, alas.
Thomas Friedman, in the throes of promoting a book, beclowns himself.
Posted by: JBD at
09:07 PM
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HEY, LET'S GIVE US THE MONEY INSTEAD
My buddy Ross Nash forwards to me an "alternative bailout" that in effect says that instead of spending $85 billion on bailing out AIG (or $700B on mortgage-based credit and security firms) why not just send that money to the people, and let them spend it?
See below the fold for the "plan". Click where is says "more"
Sounds good, right? One problem - this idea is simply inflation. If you want to see what happens when countries try this without having a counterbalancing commodity-based hard-currency income (oil, diamonds, ag goods, etc) try, for a recent example, Zimbabwe.
In comparison, these "bailout" plans we're seeing, including the $25B for the automakers, the nationalization of Fannie & Freddie, and the various other multibillion dollar deals you've read about in the last few weeks, are not direct give-aways of tax dollars, they are instead sub-standard investments made by the government that replace the the good investments they normally make.
So instead of (for example) selling Treasury bills, the Fed has purchased ownership (equity positions) in these failed enterprises, or has guaranteed loans for them (reducing the effective cost of that loan) and will over time earn a return on those investments that is lower (sometimes much lower) than the return everybody expects.
The result is that the everybody who normally borrows money from the Fed will find less of it, causing the cost of money will go up without any attendant core reason (like crop failure, oil shortage, speculation-caused scarcity, inflation), and as a result the economy will slow down and shrink - a recession. This is the same effect as if the Fed upped the prime rate - money costs more for everybody, so they have less, and can do less. This is what happened in 80-81 when the Fed killed inflation with high interest rates while Reagan boosted the economy with lower taxes.
Eventually, the Fed will sell off the bad investments and return the money to the good investment pool, or our national productivity growth will catch up and wash out the effect of reduced available cash, and the economy will start growing again.
What the "plan" below calls for is a larger form of what we saw this spring - straight cash payments to taxpayers, from taxes collected last year, requiring the Congress to either reduce spending (hah!) or add to the budget deficit.
What this "plan" fails to realize is that pumping cash into the system without a rational basis for the value of the cash is, by definition, inflation. Goods would become more expensive because people will suddenly have cost-free money to spend, and, instead of paying their mortgages or saving for college as the "plan" envisions, people will keep their current leveraged debt, and spend the new money.
So, fugedddaboudit.
more...
See below the fold for the "plan". Click where is says "more"
Sounds good, right? One problem - this idea is simply inflation. If you want to see what happens when countries try this without having a counterbalancing commodity-based hard-currency income (oil, diamonds, ag goods, etc) try, for a recent example, Zimbabwe.
In comparison, these "bailout" plans we're seeing, including the $25B for the automakers, the nationalization of Fannie & Freddie, and the various other multibillion dollar deals you've read about in the last few weeks, are not direct give-aways of tax dollars, they are instead sub-standard investments made by the government that replace the the good investments they normally make.
So instead of (for example) selling Treasury bills, the Fed has purchased ownership (equity positions) in these failed enterprises, or has guaranteed loans for them (reducing the effective cost of that loan) and will over time earn a return on those investments that is lower (sometimes much lower) than the return everybody expects.
The result is that the everybody who normally borrows money from the Fed will find less of it, causing the cost of money will go up without any attendant core reason (like crop failure, oil shortage, speculation-caused scarcity, inflation), and as a result the economy will slow down and shrink - a recession. This is the same effect as if the Fed upped the prime rate - money costs more for everybody, so they have less, and can do less. This is what happened in 80-81 when the Fed killed inflation with high interest rates while Reagan boosted the economy with lower taxes.
Eventually, the Fed will sell off the bad investments and return the money to the good investment pool, or our national productivity growth will catch up and wash out the effect of reduced available cash, and the economy will start growing again.
What the "plan" below calls for is a larger form of what we saw this spring - straight cash payments to taxpayers, from taxes collected last year, requiring the Congress to either reduce spending (hah!) or add to the budget deficit.
What this "plan" fails to realize is that pumping cash into the system without a rational basis for the value of the cash is, by definition, inflation. Goods would become more expensive because people will suddenly have cost-free money to spend, and, instead of paying their mortgages or saving for college as the "plan" envisions, people will keep their current leveraged debt, and spend the new money.
So, fugedddaboudit.
more...
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DRILL, BABY, DRILL!
How will we find the money to pay for the things we want?
Simple: we should allow any and all oil & gas drilling, shale oil development, bioenergy, etc, and participate in the profits of becoming a net energy exporter.
Then, like Alaska, once the debt has been paid down and we're running a current balanced budget, we run biennial national referenda on what to do with the surplus. The choices would be proposed by Congress, and the highest vote getter would get the money.
Choices should include all non-essential government activities, allowing the people to decide which ideas should get funding. Or, alternatively, whether they should get funding at all.
Ideas such as -
Which do you think will win each year?
What other programs should be subject to ongoing referenda?
Simple: we should allow any and all oil & gas drilling, shale oil development, bioenergy, etc, and participate in the profits of becoming a net energy exporter.
Then, like Alaska, once the debt has been paid down and we're running a current balanced budget, we run biennial national referenda on what to do with the surplus. The choices would be proposed by Congress, and the highest vote getter would get the money.
Choices should include all non-essential government activities, allowing the people to decide which ideas should get funding. Or, alternatively, whether they should get funding at all.
Ideas such as -
Reduce or eliminate taxes, and if taxes are already covered, send rebates directly to taxpayers based on taxes paid previously.
"Poverty" programs, government charity and income transfers- housing, welfare, foodstamps, etc. - all the usual Marxist stuff.
"National Greatness" activities - non-military space programs, monuments & memorials, national parks, memorial libraries and historical places, and "vanity" projects like bikepaths, city centers, riverwalks etc that should have been state projects in the first place, but are the kinds of things that now show up in the Fed budget as earmarks.
Non-reciprocal foreign aid - why are we sending Egypt billions every year? If countries receiving aid from America can't convince the American people they will use it to our benefit as well as their own, we cut them off.
"Poverty" programs, government charity and income transfers- housing, welfare, foodstamps, etc. - all the usual Marxist stuff.
"National Greatness" activities - non-military space programs, monuments & memorials, national parks, memorial libraries and historical places, and "vanity" projects like bikepaths, city centers, riverwalks etc that should have been state projects in the first place, but are the kinds of things that now show up in the Fed budget as earmarks.
Non-reciprocal foreign aid - why are we sending Egypt billions every year? If countries receiving aid from America can't convince the American people they will use it to our benefit as well as their own, we cut them off.
Which do you think will win each year?
What other programs should be subject to ongoing referenda?
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PUT A CORK IN IT
UPDATE: I originally wrote this 9/1/08, but did not post it at that time because I wanted to work on my answer to the closing question.
Now that we've had somewhat of a crash, like I predicted below, does it change my attitude about wanting Obama to win? Not at all. If anything, the naked attempts by the same people who caused the problems in the first place to grab goodies during the bail-out negotiations just reinforces my feeling that once Obama is elected, DC will go so wild with spending that the country will rebel and finally cap it for good.
What do we do about government spending?
Read this pessimistic analysis outlining the dire financial position of our entitlement and retirement programs.
This is one of the reasons I want Obama to win. I want this Social Security and pension fund crash to happen as soon as possible Like all the other government caused or exacerbated financial screwups in my lifetime - S&L scandal, wage & price controls, various bail-outs, FM/FM, the 2000 tech bubble burst, the 1987 stock bubble burst, and so on - [and now the Credit Crunch of 08] the sooner we get this fixed, the faster we can get it behind us, and limit the cost to damage already done.
My answer is to reduce benefits paid out to match income. When the system reaches "insolvency" (meaning the dollar amount of Social Security taxes collected that year is exceeded by the dollars scheduled to be paid out) everybody getting a payout gets a percentage reduction to match. So if we collect only 90% of the scheduled payout, beneficiaries get only 90% of what they expected, with no "make-up" in the future if the system turns around.
Also, as soon as we hit "insolvency", the programs will close, admitting no new participants, and freezing all those who have already contributed to the current value of the benefits accrued to date. From that point forward, those already in the system will continue to pay at the same rate, but each year an increasing percentage of that payment will be redirected by the participant to private equity markets or insurance companies. At some point the accrued and compounded value of those contributions will equal the benefits that the contributor would have received had they stayed in the system, at which point they will stop making payments into the system, and will from then on direct their own retirement and health financing.
So the sooner we start this, the better. Since we actually hit "insolvency" many years ago (buying debt to cover the difference) we need to do this right the hell now.
So what about all those poor people who depend solely on their Social Security and Medciare/Medicad? How will they make up the difference when the plan starts shorting them, which, combined with inflation, will leave them with less money for higher bills?
We allow individuals and charities to supplement their care with tax-deductible dollars, until we reach the crossover cohort, then the tax benefit reduces to zero to match pro-rata the benefits lost in the close-out of the old system. Presto - the government is out of the pension business for good in 25-35 years.
I await the brutal corrections to come from the Dunns.
Now that we've had somewhat of a crash, like I predicted below, does it change my attitude about wanting Obama to win? Not at all. If anything, the naked attempts by the same people who caused the problems in the first place to grab goodies during the bail-out negotiations just reinforces my feeling that once Obama is elected, DC will go so wild with spending that the country will rebel and finally cap it for good.
What do we do about government spending?
Read this pessimistic analysis outlining the dire financial position of our entitlement and retirement programs.
This is one of the reasons I want Obama to win. I want this Social Security and pension fund crash to happen as soon as possible Like all the other government caused or exacerbated financial screwups in my lifetime - S&L scandal, wage & price controls, various bail-outs, FM/FM, the 2000 tech bubble burst, the 1987 stock bubble burst, and so on - [and now the Credit Crunch of 08] the sooner we get this fixed, the faster we can get it behind us, and limit the cost to damage already done.
My answer is to reduce benefits paid out to match income. When the system reaches "insolvency" (meaning the dollar amount of Social Security taxes collected that year is exceeded by the dollars scheduled to be paid out) everybody getting a payout gets a percentage reduction to match. So if we collect only 90% of the scheduled payout, beneficiaries get only 90% of what they expected, with no "make-up" in the future if the system turns around.
Also, as soon as we hit "insolvency", the programs will close, admitting no new participants, and freezing all those who have already contributed to the current value of the benefits accrued to date. From that point forward, those already in the system will continue to pay at the same rate, but each year an increasing percentage of that payment will be redirected by the participant to private equity markets or insurance companies. At some point the accrued and compounded value of those contributions will equal the benefits that the contributor would have received had they stayed in the system, at which point they will stop making payments into the system, and will from then on direct their own retirement and health financing.
So the sooner we start this, the better. Since we actually hit "insolvency" many years ago (buying debt to cover the difference) we need to do this right the hell now.
So what about all those poor people who depend solely on their Social Security and Medciare/Medicad? How will they make up the difference when the plan starts shorting them, which, combined with inflation, will leave them with less money for higher bills?
We allow individuals and charities to supplement their care with tax-deductible dollars, until we reach the crossover cohort, then the tax benefit reduces to zero to match pro-rata the benefits lost in the close-out of the old system. Presto - the government is out of the pension business for good in 25-35 years.
I await the brutal corrections to come from the Dunns.
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September 14, 2008
LIVE, FROM CHAPPAQUA, IT'S SATURDAY NIGHT!
Scene – Present day, Saturday, late evening, interior. A nicely-furnished living room in a large home in the upscale suburb of Chappaqua, New York.
The crash and tinkle of fine china splits the calm of the near-midnight quiet. A slurred, arguably female voice rises in disbelief and rage. The voice belongs to the slightly spiflocated Former First Lady of the United States
FFLOUS, holding up a printed e-mail: “That rat bastard! He’s losing it! He’s now down 4 among registered voters in Gallup! Can you believe it Bill?!?
Former President of the United States: “Now dear, I feel your pain, but…â€
FFLOUS, angrily cutting him off and flinging the paper over her shoulder: “Aw, shitcan the sympathy act, Bubba! You’re just as much to blame as anybody! “
(Mockingly low-voiced parody of the FPOTUS):‘I’ll talk to Obama, honey, he’ll listen to me, just like Arafat did.’
"Christ on a popsicle stick, Bill, Obama made you wait in the lobby! So much for the persuasive powers of the former ‘first black president!’â€
FPOTUS: “Now, honey, you know I never encouraged anybody to call me that. Toni Morrison was deep into one of her famous Hennessey and Sprite benders when she wrote that.â€
FFLOUS: “I know that, you big goon – I can read an FBI file as well as anybody. But you guaranteed me way back last June that I would head a Clinton-Obama ticket, as long as I didn’t go negative on him. Well, I didn’t, at least not until it was too late, and I still almost pulled it off. Nice work, Mr. Political Savvy!â€
FPOTUS: “Well how in the hell was I supposed to know he would do as well as he did? And with all the money you spent…â€
FFLOUS, rounding on him, red-eyed: “Don’t you DARE lay that on me! It was that traitorous bitch Patti "$100,000 sandwich" Solis Doyle who was spending my hard earned contributions like a Senator from California!â€
Straightens, regains control, takes a slurp from her sizeable tumbler of Crown Royal. â€Well, it's payback time, Barry. Looks like she’s doing the same thing to you!"
FPOTUS: “Now you see there, Hil? Don’t lose hope. He was a different guy when he came crawling back to me last week.â€
He snickers and leans back. “I made him wait in my lobby exactly twice as long as he made me wait.â€
Goes wide eyed and ducks quickly as an elegant vase whistles past his head and shatters against the wall behind him.
FFLOUS: “What the hell difference does that make!?! He’s spending money so fast now he won’t have any left to pay off my campaign debts!
A slurp and a twitching backhand wipe across her mouth: "Three goddam million blown on that stadium deal alone. Who does he think he is, Billy Freaking Graham? At least Billy always came away with more money than he started with. Now THERE was a guy who could fill a stadium! And did FatAss Al Gore say a word about the gawdaful carbon footprint of that fiasco? Noooo, he's too busy polishing his frickin' Nobel!"
FPOTUS: “Aw, shucks honey, I can earn that back and lots more in a couple of weeks on the lecture circuit. You know Abu Dhabi wants me there to cut the ribbon on their new buildingâ€
Does a Gomer Pyle voice “Why that’s half a mil right there, easy as pie. Gollll-eee!â€
He gets serious again under her withering state. “OK, the point is I got Obama to agree to everything we asked for before the convention – the ambassadorship to Sweden for me, SecDef for you, and Lieberman’s nuts in a poke sack by Valentine’s day. "
"All I gotta do is make a few appearances on the campaign in the next 7 weeks. And don’t sweat those polls so much – we’ll turn it around, just like we did in ’92.
FFLOUS, grousing: “But HE’s going to be the President, not me! We had the Unbeatable Historic Dream Ticket!
Stops, looks up, almost whispering at first, then building to a feral roar: "We were in the right place, at the right time, with a huge tailwind courtesy of Chimpy McHitlerburton, and a cripple sourpuss repeat of the Dole campaign as an opponent. But nooooo, Mr. ‘Big Ears means big penis’ couldn’t wait his turn, had to go all messiah on us! And what was with all those fainting women at his rallies! I’ve never been so ashamed to own a vagina in all my life! Now he can't even handle that chillbilly brood sow from Mooseville! I'd have that backwoods bimbo in tears in 10 seconds! Mr. 'brilliant orator' calls her a pig!
Tips the tumbler nearly vertical then pulls down with a snarl: "Maricella!†(calling for the Puerto Rican maid). “What do I have to do to get a reuben sandwich and a refill around here? Judas priest, why in hell did we pardon all those friends of yours for anyway.
Maricella, peeking out from behind the amoire where she was sheltering: “Si, Signora Cleenton, muy pronto!â€
FFLOUS, mumbling: “Goddam illegals. Practically useless. McCain can have ‘em all. I’ll take a good old Arkansas darky any day of the week.â€
FPOTUS: “Hillary! I’m shocked! Is that any way to refer to our African American countrymen?â€
FFLOUS, suddenly pie-eyed, chastened & starting to weep. “I’m sorry, Bill, really, I didn’t mean it. It’s my Chicago upbringing coming out. I’m just sick about all this, and it’s not fair, and I hate everybody!â€
Sobbing hard now, poking her chest and stamping her foot. â€It was MY TURN. I waited my turn, Bill. I gave up my shit-hot DC job for you. I helped take Nixon down, and then I walked away and bet everything I had on you! I took it all, for years – the pig humpers and slackjaws in Arkansas, the bimbos, the right-wingnuts making fun of my legs – Christ, if I hear the term ‘cankles’ just one more time, I’m going O.J. on somebody! Not to mention the endless crap I get from Carville and Morris and Panetta and Begala and Stephanopoulos- that pindick runt! He was nothing but a prettyboy wannabe when I found him, and I taught him everything he knows! And then at the first sign of trouble he has the gall to walk away and act all righteous and sophisticated on TV every Sunday. Mr. Network Haircut Boy!
Sob and slurp. “And let’s not forget Monica, huhn, Bill? You think getting me in the Senate squared you on that ? No way, asshole. Our deal was the White House, or I spill my guts to Judith Regan!â€
FPOTUS: “Now honey, you know I’ll make good for you. Win or lose, Obama’s finished. If he wins, you know he’ll be the worst President since Carter. You can hang on to SecDef as long as you like, then resign in disgust at just the right moment to challenge him in 2012. He’ll be so screwed up and worthless nobody will give him a dime, and he’ll have to think up some kind of family crisis or disease or something, just like old Johnny Edwards did, so he could do an LBJ and bail out.
Rising now, FPOTUS walks over and embraces her: “And if he loses now, he’s in the same place, only sooner. With all the money he’s blown, and with the whole “historic first black nominee†thing a lost opportunity, you can swoop on in and say ‘I told you so!’ and the whole coalition will fall back into line, and 2012, here you come. Hell, we’ll find you a female VP to take on this new girl. Maybe even an African American. How’s that sound?â€
FFLOTUS, unconvinced but resigned: “Well, I guess it’s all still possible. But I don’t want to be as old as McCain when I finally get there.
FPOTUS: “Just 4 short years, I promise. Now look, here’s your sandwich and fresh drink. Gracias, Maricella!â€
Maricella, setting down the tray, coquettishly: â€De nada, Senor Presidente!†Exits quickly after hearing the ice rattle in FFLOTUS’ empty drink.
FPOTUS: “There now, isn’t this great. Hey, Saturday Night Live is on. Look, they got Tina Fey as Palin. Oh yeah, this’ll be good, they’ll get her but good. Look what they did to Al Gore. And look, it’s…â€
Stops abruptly, gets up quickly, but it’s already too late.
FFLOTUS looks up, sees Amy Poehler doing her Hillary Clinton impression, and hears her say “canklesâ€. She picks up the jar of Grey Poupon from her tray and with a snarl, viciously heaves it at the 50†Sony HD display, which shatters spectacularly in a spray of sparks, glass and mustard.
FPOTUS, timidly coming out of a protective curl: “Shit, that’s the 4th one this year.â€
The crash and tinkle of fine china splits the calm of the near-midnight quiet. A slurred, arguably female voice rises in disbelief and rage. The voice belongs to the slightly spiflocated Former First Lady of the United States
FFLOUS, holding up a printed e-mail: “That rat bastard! He’s losing it! He’s now down 4 among registered voters in Gallup! Can you believe it Bill?!?
Former President of the United States: “Now dear, I feel your pain, but…â€
FFLOUS, angrily cutting him off and flinging the paper over her shoulder: “Aw, shitcan the sympathy act, Bubba! You’re just as much to blame as anybody! “
(Mockingly low-voiced parody of the FPOTUS):‘I’ll talk to Obama, honey, he’ll listen to me, just like Arafat did.’
"Christ on a popsicle stick, Bill, Obama made you wait in the lobby! So much for the persuasive powers of the former ‘first black president!’â€
FPOTUS: “Now, honey, you know I never encouraged anybody to call me that. Toni Morrison was deep into one of her famous Hennessey and Sprite benders when she wrote that.â€
FFLOUS: “I know that, you big goon – I can read an FBI file as well as anybody. But you guaranteed me way back last June that I would head a Clinton-Obama ticket, as long as I didn’t go negative on him. Well, I didn’t, at least not until it was too late, and I still almost pulled it off. Nice work, Mr. Political Savvy!â€
FPOTUS: “Well how in the hell was I supposed to know he would do as well as he did? And with all the money you spent…â€
FFLOUS, rounding on him, red-eyed: “Don’t you DARE lay that on me! It was that traitorous bitch Patti "$100,000 sandwich" Solis Doyle who was spending my hard earned contributions like a Senator from California!â€
Straightens, regains control, takes a slurp from her sizeable tumbler of Crown Royal. â€Well, it's payback time, Barry. Looks like she’s doing the same thing to you!"
FPOTUS: “Now you see there, Hil? Don’t lose hope. He was a different guy when he came crawling back to me last week.â€
He snickers and leans back. “I made him wait in my lobby exactly twice as long as he made me wait.â€
Goes wide eyed and ducks quickly as an elegant vase whistles past his head and shatters against the wall behind him.
FFLOUS: “What the hell difference does that make!?! He’s spending money so fast now he won’t have any left to pay off my campaign debts!
A slurp and a twitching backhand wipe across her mouth: "Three goddam million blown on that stadium deal alone. Who does he think he is, Billy Freaking Graham? At least Billy always came away with more money than he started with. Now THERE was a guy who could fill a stadium! And did FatAss Al Gore say a word about the gawdaful carbon footprint of that fiasco? Noooo, he's too busy polishing his frickin' Nobel!"
FPOTUS: “Aw, shucks honey, I can earn that back and lots more in a couple of weeks on the lecture circuit. You know Abu Dhabi wants me there to cut the ribbon on their new buildingâ€
Does a Gomer Pyle voice “Why that’s half a mil right there, easy as pie. Gollll-eee!â€
He gets serious again under her withering state. “OK, the point is I got Obama to agree to everything we asked for before the convention – the ambassadorship to Sweden for me, SecDef for you, and Lieberman’s nuts in a poke sack by Valentine’s day. "
"All I gotta do is make a few appearances on the campaign in the next 7 weeks. And don’t sweat those polls so much – we’ll turn it around, just like we did in ’92.
FFLOUS, grousing: “But HE’s going to be the President, not me! We had the Unbeatable Historic Dream Ticket!
Stops, looks up, almost whispering at first, then building to a feral roar: "We were in the right place, at the right time, with a huge tailwind courtesy of Chimpy McHitlerburton, and a cripple sourpuss repeat of the Dole campaign as an opponent. But nooooo, Mr. ‘Big Ears means big penis’ couldn’t wait his turn, had to go all messiah on us! And what was with all those fainting women at his rallies! I’ve never been so ashamed to own a vagina in all my life! Now he can't even handle that chillbilly brood sow from Mooseville! I'd have that backwoods bimbo in tears in 10 seconds! Mr. 'brilliant orator' calls her a pig!
Tips the tumbler nearly vertical then pulls down with a snarl: "Maricella!†(calling for the Puerto Rican maid). “What do I have to do to get a reuben sandwich and a refill around here? Judas priest, why in hell did we pardon all those friends of yours for anyway.
Maricella, peeking out from behind the amoire where she was sheltering: “Si, Signora Cleenton, muy pronto!â€
FFLOUS, mumbling: “Goddam illegals. Practically useless. McCain can have ‘em all. I’ll take a good old Arkansas darky any day of the week.â€
FPOTUS: “Hillary! I’m shocked! Is that any way to refer to our African American countrymen?â€
FFLOUS, suddenly pie-eyed, chastened & starting to weep. “I’m sorry, Bill, really, I didn’t mean it. It’s my Chicago upbringing coming out. I’m just sick about all this, and it’s not fair, and I hate everybody!â€
Sobbing hard now, poking her chest and stamping her foot. â€It was MY TURN. I waited my turn, Bill. I gave up my shit-hot DC job for you. I helped take Nixon down, and then I walked away and bet everything I had on you! I took it all, for years – the pig humpers and slackjaws in Arkansas, the bimbos, the right-wingnuts making fun of my legs – Christ, if I hear the term ‘cankles’ just one more time, I’m going O.J. on somebody! Not to mention the endless crap I get from Carville and Morris and Panetta and Begala and Stephanopoulos- that pindick runt! He was nothing but a prettyboy wannabe when I found him, and I taught him everything he knows! And then at the first sign of trouble he has the gall to walk away and act all righteous and sophisticated on TV every Sunday. Mr. Network Haircut Boy!
Sob and slurp. “And let’s not forget Monica, huhn, Bill? You think getting me in the Senate squared you on that ? No way, asshole. Our deal was the White House, or I spill my guts to Judith Regan!â€
FPOTUS: “Now honey, you know I’ll make good for you. Win or lose, Obama’s finished. If he wins, you know he’ll be the worst President since Carter. You can hang on to SecDef as long as you like, then resign in disgust at just the right moment to challenge him in 2012. He’ll be so screwed up and worthless nobody will give him a dime, and he’ll have to think up some kind of family crisis or disease or something, just like old Johnny Edwards did, so he could do an LBJ and bail out.
Rising now, FPOTUS walks over and embraces her: “And if he loses now, he’s in the same place, only sooner. With all the money he’s blown, and with the whole “historic first black nominee†thing a lost opportunity, you can swoop on in and say ‘I told you so!’ and the whole coalition will fall back into line, and 2012, here you come. Hell, we’ll find you a female VP to take on this new girl. Maybe even an African American. How’s that sound?â€
FFLOTUS, unconvinced but resigned: “Well, I guess it’s all still possible. But I don’t want to be as old as McCain when I finally get there.
FPOTUS: “Just 4 short years, I promise. Now look, here’s your sandwich and fresh drink. Gracias, Maricella!â€
Maricella, setting down the tray, coquettishly: â€De nada, Senor Presidente!†Exits quickly after hearing the ice rattle in FFLOTUS’ empty drink.
FPOTUS: “There now, isn’t this great. Hey, Saturday Night Live is on. Look, they got Tina Fey as Palin. Oh yeah, this’ll be good, they’ll get her but good. Look what they did to Al Gore. And look, it’s…â€
Stops abruptly, gets up quickly, but it’s already too late.
FFLOTUS looks up, sees Amy Poehler doing her Hillary Clinton impression, and hears her say “canklesâ€. She picks up the jar of Grey Poupon from her tray and with a snarl, viciously heaves it at the 50†Sony HD display, which shatters spectacularly in a spray of sparks, glass and mustard.
FPOTUS, timidly coming out of a protective curl: “Shit, that’s the 4th one this year.â€
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BIDEN HIS TIME, PALIN IN COMPARISON
Well now, my friends, wasn't that an interesting couple of weeks?
In the 13 days since my last post, it has been Sarah Palin 24/7. I started a dozen posts about her, and then held off, because each time I thought the frenzy had reached its peak, the media or Obama campaign would top themselves. And every time I thought I had a fresh insight, I would read somebody’s take who said it better than I ever could.
The stuff came so fast, and so good, that I was helplessly trying to take a drink from the fire hose. So I would just cut a reference here and there and paste it to my blog compiler so I could write about it later. In the end, I gave up – see the links below for what I believe are definitive statements and analysis.
The pick – pure genius. Palin was known to us Republican geek types because of her conservative takedown of Murkowski, and her anti-RINO policies in the face of the Alaska uber-RINO senators Young and Stevens. They, like Biden, are very long term Senators from small population states, whose main claim to re-election is their seniority, which gives them more power to suck out Fed dollars in the form of earmarks and other Fed projects. Like nearly all Senators, they quickly become creatures of Washington, and measure their success in dollars spent.
McCain has a reputation as one of the few non-DC Senators, his maverick brand earned by bucking his own party and crossing the aisle. It’s one of the reasons I didn’t want him for President, and really still don’t. Even with a bona-fide non-DC running mate, he just is not interested in shaking up the things that really need it.
All that aside, the effect that Palin has had on the Obama campaign and the media (more or less one in the same) has been nothing short of astonishing. They were caught completely flat-footed, stunned by the pick, and simply unable to summon up a straightforward comment. I’m sure they had pre-cooked statements for the other likely picks – Pawlenty, Romney, even Lieberman.
But McCain’s airtight inner circle (a very good sign for the future, BTW) gave them all the rope they needed to hang themselves, including having the more obvious candidates head-fake by canceling appearances and traveling unexpectedly. THAT is how you deal with adversaries – you get into their heads, and play their own strengths and faults against them - ju-jitsu instead of sumo.
Right from the beginning, the Obamaniacs unveiled their abominable instincts, with the first official comment from the campaign belittling Palin’s experience and her background. Here’s what they should have done. Obama and his main campaign people should have ignored the pick and reserved comment when asked, sucking some of the air out of the Palin balloon and at the same time building anticipation. Then 24 hours after her announcement, Biden should have released a totally goo-goo statement (similar to what McCain did the night Obama had his coronation party), some thing like “We are thrilled and excited to learn that the Republicans have made a historic choice for their VP candidate in Sarah Palin, the fine governor from the great state of Alaska. We welcome her to the national scene, and I look forward to debating her on the issues that concern the citizens of our country.†Period, full stop.
But even if they had done something smart like that (Obama tried to cover up the stink of the original comment with his more gracious statement later that day) there would have been no way to restrain the madness of the nutroots and media. I’m sure you have heard all the charges and counter charges by now, summarized here (so I won’t repeat them). If after reviewing that list any of you have further negative statements or "gotchas" not on that list (like this one) please say so in the comments, and I’ll address them.
So, is she qualified? Constitutionally, sure. Does she have the necessary experience? Arguably, more of the right kind - executive experience – than the three Senators. What about international experience? Overrated – Biden has bags of it, and his comments and policy suggestions have been proven laughable. So "experience" in foreign affairs is not what you want in a President, you want a spirited and well-informed (which is what aides are for) advocate for your country, who will make sure that the USA’s interest are promoted and protected. Complaining about your country to Europeans is not what we want in a President.
Bottom line – Sarah Palin is the biggest game-changer since Teddy Roosevelt, for many of the same reasons, including the fact that plenty of mainstream Republicans are leery of her, just as some were of Teddy. That does not mean she is otherwise comparable, as many have debated. Whether that is good for the Republican party, or even good for the country at this time, is debatable. I still think Obama-Biden will (and should) win in November, but it is not nearly the sure thing I thought it was two weeks ago.
Now the race will now be much tighter, which, coupled with what was confirmed by the rabid, juvenile reactions of the Obama supporters, bolsters the likelihood of my still-preferred scenario. A bitterly-fought campaign, followed by a squeaker win, including a reduced but still majority Democrat presence in both houses, will lead to chaos and gridlock until 2010, then real change in 2012.
Lots more to say on this, as you shall see. Politics is fun again!
In the 13 days since my last post, it has been Sarah Palin 24/7. I started a dozen posts about her, and then held off, because each time I thought the frenzy had reached its peak, the media or Obama campaign would top themselves. And every time I thought I had a fresh insight, I would read somebody’s take who said it better than I ever could.
The stuff came so fast, and so good, that I was helplessly trying to take a drink from the fire hose. So I would just cut a reference here and there and paste it to my blog compiler so I could write about it later. In the end, I gave up – see the links below for what I believe are definitive statements and analysis.
The pick – pure genius. Palin was known to us Republican geek types because of her conservative takedown of Murkowski, and her anti-RINO policies in the face of the Alaska uber-RINO senators Young and Stevens. They, like Biden, are very long term Senators from small population states, whose main claim to re-election is their seniority, which gives them more power to suck out Fed dollars in the form of earmarks and other Fed projects. Like nearly all Senators, they quickly become creatures of Washington, and measure their success in dollars spent.
McCain has a reputation as one of the few non-DC Senators, his maverick brand earned by bucking his own party and crossing the aisle. It’s one of the reasons I didn’t want him for President, and really still don’t. Even with a bona-fide non-DC running mate, he just is not interested in shaking up the things that really need it.
All that aside, the effect that Palin has had on the Obama campaign and the media (more or less one in the same) has been nothing short of astonishing. They were caught completely flat-footed, stunned by the pick, and simply unable to summon up a straightforward comment. I’m sure they had pre-cooked statements for the other likely picks – Pawlenty, Romney, even Lieberman.
But McCain’s airtight inner circle (a very good sign for the future, BTW) gave them all the rope they needed to hang themselves, including having the more obvious candidates head-fake by canceling appearances and traveling unexpectedly. THAT is how you deal with adversaries – you get into their heads, and play their own strengths and faults against them - ju-jitsu instead of sumo.
Right from the beginning, the Obamaniacs unveiled their abominable instincts, with the first official comment from the campaign belittling Palin’s experience and her background. Here’s what they should have done. Obama and his main campaign people should have ignored the pick and reserved comment when asked, sucking some of the air out of the Palin balloon and at the same time building anticipation. Then 24 hours after her announcement, Biden should have released a totally goo-goo statement (similar to what McCain did the night Obama had his coronation party), some thing like “We are thrilled and excited to learn that the Republicans have made a historic choice for their VP candidate in Sarah Palin, the fine governor from the great state of Alaska. We welcome her to the national scene, and I look forward to debating her on the issues that concern the citizens of our country.†Period, full stop.
But even if they had done something smart like that (Obama tried to cover up the stink of the original comment with his more gracious statement later that day) there would have been no way to restrain the madness of the nutroots and media. I’m sure you have heard all the charges and counter charges by now, summarized here (so I won’t repeat them). If after reviewing that list any of you have further negative statements or "gotchas" not on that list (like this one) please say so in the comments, and I’ll address them.
So, is she qualified? Constitutionally, sure. Does she have the necessary experience? Arguably, more of the right kind - executive experience – than the three Senators. What about international experience? Overrated – Biden has bags of it, and his comments and policy suggestions have been proven laughable. So "experience" in foreign affairs is not what you want in a President, you want a spirited and well-informed (which is what aides are for) advocate for your country, who will make sure that the USA’s interest are promoted and protected. Complaining about your country to Europeans is not what we want in a President.
Bottom line – Sarah Palin is the biggest game-changer since Teddy Roosevelt, for many of the same reasons, including the fact that plenty of mainstream Republicans are leery of her, just as some were of Teddy. That does not mean she is otherwise comparable, as many have debated. Whether that is good for the Republican party, or even good for the country at this time, is debatable. I still think Obama-Biden will (and should) win in November, but it is not nearly the sure thing I thought it was two weeks ago.
Now the race will now be much tighter, which, coupled with what was confirmed by the rabid, juvenile reactions of the Obama supporters, bolsters the likelihood of my still-preferred scenario. A bitterly-fought campaign, followed by a squeaker win, including a reduced but still majority Democrat presence in both houses, will lead to chaos and gridlock until 2010, then real change in 2012.
Lots more to say on this, as you shall see. Politics is fun again!
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September 01, 2008
WHAT I WANT FROM PRESIDENT & CONGRESS IS ... LESS OF EVERYTHING
My cousin Mike Mc and I traded friendly political barbs with each other at our Irish family party. The one that hit me hardest was his simple question “What happened to the surplus?â€
By this he means the 2000 FY budget surplus. Through the hard work of the Republican congress, led by Newt Gingrich and the 1994 “Contract with America†class, coupled with the peace dividend from the end of the Cold War, and the biggest years of the hi-tech bubble, the Federal Government actually spent less money than they took in for one fiscal year. By the time Clinton left office, however, the numbers were negative again, and have stayed negative ever since.
This chart tells the sad story.
My answer? RINOs – Republicans In Name Only.
I consider the typical Democrat to be mostly harmless, a usually sincere do-gooder who buys into a fairy-tale idea of society and human nature. They are usually their own worst enemies during an election, spouting off about “hope†and “change†and “reform†(or for the Che lovers out there, revolucion!). But their history of corruption, spending and kowtowing to Europe usually keeps them from getting too powerful for too long. They are easily tolerated and mostly manageable in our prosperous free society, child-like and naïve, but not to be trusted with the car keys.
But RINOs are my mortal enemies. RINOs are thick on the ground in Washington and in state capitols, vastly outnumbering their practically extinct counterparts, the DINOs, also known variously as Scoop Jackson Democrats, or Southern Democrats, or Law & Order Democrats, or National Security Democrats. All these are dated terms, because the Reagan–Bush realignment of the 80’s and 90’s caused a huge number of nominal Democrats to switch parties so they could be on the winning side. The rest of the Democrat mugwumps woke up and moved right after September 11, 2001.
RINOs serve and enable the purposes of the core of the Democrat party machine, embodied by the Clintons and their cabal – Blumenthal, Begala, Rahm Emmanuel, etc. - the elitist (but not actually elite) bitter, disaffected, non-productive segment of our society. They range from the sign carrying, slogan chanting, drum pounding hippie types and Code Pinkers to the career Ivy League lawyers and J-school agitators who won’t or can’t get a real job or start a productive company, but expect the productive and hard-working among us to quietly turn over an ever-growing portion of our earnings to them for their quasi-charitable and socialist power-building governmental programs.
I believe that the ridiculous increases in discretionary non-military spending that Bush and the RINOs allowed – and in most cases, added to – from 2001 to 2006 earned them the defeat they got in the 2006 elections. When are they going to learn that they can’t win votes by trying to outspend Democrats? The Dems take the money and the credit, then keep right on trashing the Republicans as if they were slapping widows and starving orphans. Democrats believe you can never spend too much money - there is always another program or constituency that needs government money.
That’s why I would very much prefer not to have McCain as my candidate. He’s a 30-year veteran of the log rolling and pork barreling that has caused out debt. Though he has had some good votes – for tax cuts, the Surge, the War on Terror in general, he’s also gone wrong on campaign finance and immigration. He’s the lesser of two evils, and I'm still not sure I'll vote for him.
But except for the paint job, there is not a dime's bit of difference between his opponent Obama and any other recent Democrat presidential candidate - either of the Clintons, or Kerry, Gore, Edwards, Mondale, Dukakis, Carter, McGovern, you name them - and none of them are anywhere near the right kind of people we need to lead this country, regardless of the worshipful and fawning media treatment they get.
Cousin Mike nails it with this comment:
Amen, cousin. So, what do we do about it?
By this he means the 2000 FY budget surplus. Through the hard work of the Republican congress, led by Newt Gingrich and the 1994 “Contract with America†class, coupled with the peace dividend from the end of the Cold War, and the biggest years of the hi-tech bubble, the Federal Government actually spent less money than they took in for one fiscal year. By the time Clinton left office, however, the numbers were negative again, and have stayed negative ever since.
This chart tells the sad story.
My answer? RINOs – Republicans In Name Only.
I consider the typical Democrat to be mostly harmless, a usually sincere do-gooder who buys into a fairy-tale idea of society and human nature. They are usually their own worst enemies during an election, spouting off about “hope†and “change†and “reform†(or for the Che lovers out there, revolucion!). But their history of corruption, spending and kowtowing to Europe usually keeps them from getting too powerful for too long. They are easily tolerated and mostly manageable in our prosperous free society, child-like and naïve, but not to be trusted with the car keys.
But RINOs are my mortal enemies. RINOs are thick on the ground in Washington and in state capitols, vastly outnumbering their practically extinct counterparts, the DINOs, also known variously as Scoop Jackson Democrats, or Southern Democrats, or Law & Order Democrats, or National Security Democrats. All these are dated terms, because the Reagan–Bush realignment of the 80’s and 90’s caused a huge number of nominal Democrats to switch parties so they could be on the winning side. The rest of the Democrat mugwumps woke up and moved right after September 11, 2001.
RINOs serve and enable the purposes of the core of the Democrat party machine, embodied by the Clintons and their cabal – Blumenthal, Begala, Rahm Emmanuel, etc. - the elitist (but not actually elite) bitter, disaffected, non-productive segment of our society. They range from the sign carrying, slogan chanting, drum pounding hippie types and Code Pinkers to the career Ivy League lawyers and J-school agitators who won’t or can’t get a real job or start a productive company, but expect the productive and hard-working among us to quietly turn over an ever-growing portion of our earnings to them for their quasi-charitable and socialist power-building governmental programs.
I believe that the ridiculous increases in discretionary non-military spending that Bush and the RINOs allowed – and in most cases, added to – from 2001 to 2006 earned them the defeat they got in the 2006 elections. When are they going to learn that they can’t win votes by trying to outspend Democrats? The Dems take the money and the credit, then keep right on trashing the Republicans as if they were slapping widows and starving orphans. Democrats believe you can never spend too much money - there is always another program or constituency that needs government money.
That’s why I would very much prefer not to have McCain as my candidate. He’s a 30-year veteran of the log rolling and pork barreling that has caused out debt. Though he has had some good votes – for tax cuts, the Surge, the War on Terror in general, he’s also gone wrong on campaign finance and immigration. He’s the lesser of two evils, and I'm still not sure I'll vote for him.
But except for the paint job, there is not a dime's bit of difference between his opponent Obama and any other recent Democrat presidential candidate - either of the Clintons, or Kerry, Gore, Edwards, Mondale, Dukakis, Carter, McGovern, you name them - and none of them are anywhere near the right kind of people we need to lead this country, regardless of the worshipful and fawning media treatment they get.
Cousin Mike nails it with this comment:
I just read an editorial by George Will on our governor...spending through the roof under his 'leadership'. [JBD – Arnie is a classic RINO – hard to see how CA would be any different now if Gray Davis had been in charge all along. Instead of enforcing budget sanity up front like he said he would, Arnie went along with the Dems to spend like mad when the revenue was increasing during the housing boom,. Now, with revenue falling along with housing, he's taking the blame alone, and looking for a way out. We’re something like 2 months late on the state budget this year due to infighting over what to cut. And they want to raise sales taxes to make up the difference!]
Sadly, very few politicians of any party can say no to spending. The parties just disagree on how to overspend...guns vs. butter - the classical economic trade-off. And presidents are loath to veto.
Biggest problem in America...could be...lack of discipline (of all kinds).
Sadly, very few politicians of any party can say no to spending. The parties just disagree on how to overspend...guns vs. butter - the classical economic trade-off. And presidents are loath to veto.
Biggest problem in America...could be...lack of discipline (of all kinds).
Amen, cousin. So, what do we do about it?
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A MAN IN FULL
Following up on this post about the accomplishments of GWB as President, I offer this story.
I've read several like this, but never in the mainstream press, usually on MilBlogs.
3-4 years from now, when the same people who currently abhor GWB have soured on McCain or Obama ,stories like this will re-appear, and suddenly they'll get all nostalgic for that great guy President Bush.
Hat tip: Ace
I've read several like this, but never in the mainstream press, usually on MilBlogs.
3-4 years from now, when the same people who currently abhor GWB have soured on McCain or Obama ,stories like this will re-appear, and suddenly they'll get all nostalgic for that great guy President Bush.
Hat tip: Ace
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SOMETHING THERE IS THAT DOESN'T LOVE A WALL
Steve H Graham at Hog On Ice lapses Democratic over what he perceives to be a less-than-adequate flood wall in New Orleans.
Not saving lives, since everyone was evacuated, but reducing damage to property. Sure we can do better. How much better, and at what cost? Somebody somewhere had to calculate the ROI of the cost of the wall against the cost and likelihood of property damage & lost economic activity. Looks like they chose to pay for a wall that works fine for all but the worst cases.
And as {a commenter on the site} notes, the local authorities probably spent some of the wall money on other things, trading height & width for hookers & heroin.
NOLA is criscrossed with elevated highways [JBD - point being - they know how to do it, and chose not to, in the case of the wall.]. Same ROI calculation each time they build one - what is our return on the cost of doing this, vs. leaving it as it is, or choosing some cheaper half-measure, like a drawbridge, that could get damaged every 20-40 years by a Katrina.
Same decision every bridge/levee builder makes every time they build one. Only time can tell if they were right. And even if the bridge or wall fails, was the cause of failure bad design (Minneapolis) or simply an Act of God (Katrina).
My opinion: if an area floods at any time, essential structures should not be located there. If private citizens or companies undertake the risk to build there and subsequently lose everything, the taxpayer should not be forced to cover the loss.
This is how the Sepulveda Dam basin is handled in LA - it floods out once every couple of years, but the rest of the time it's a park. All they have to replace are the ball diamonds and other lightweight infrastructure.
The Army Corps Of Engineers has been trying to steer the major rivers since 1936, and still we get huge damaging floods nearly every year. It's a futile waste of money.
Steve took issue with my comment:
My reply:
"We're talking about a few miles of wall, to save lives. Am I wrong? Is there some reason why we can't do better?"
Not saving lives, since everyone was evacuated, but reducing damage to property. Sure we can do better. How much better, and at what cost? Somebody somewhere had to calculate the ROI of the cost of the wall against the cost and likelihood of property damage & lost economic activity. Looks like they chose to pay for a wall that works fine for all but the worst cases.
And as {a commenter on the site} notes, the local authorities probably spent some of the wall money on other things, trading height & width for hookers & heroin.
"Here in Miami, we have dozens of miles of elevated highway. That took much more material and effort than a decent levee. If we can build expressways, why can't we build levees we know will work?"
NOLA is criscrossed with elevated highways [JBD - point being - they know how to do it, and chose not to, in the case of the wall.]. Same ROI calculation each time they build one - what is our return on the cost of doing this, vs. leaving it as it is, or choosing some cheaper half-measure, like a drawbridge, that could get damaged every 20-40 years by a Katrina.
Same decision every bridge/levee builder makes every time they build one. Only time can tell if they were right. And even if the bridge or wall fails, was the cause of failure bad design (Minneapolis) or simply an Act of God (Katrina).
My opinion: if an area floods at any time, essential structures should not be located there. If private citizens or companies undertake the risk to build there and subsequently lose everything, the taxpayer should not be forced to cover the loss.
This is how the Sepulveda Dam basin is handled in LA - it floods out once every couple of years, but the rest of the time it's a park. All they have to replace are the ball diamonds and other lightweight infrastructure.
The Army Corps Of Engineers has been trying to steer the major rivers since 1936, and still we get huge damaging floods nearly every year. It's a futile waste of money.
Steve took issue with my comment:
"Looks like they chose to pay for a wall that works fine for all but the worst cases. "
That's not really right. This was a fairly weak storm about 70 miles away. It wasn't even close to a worst case. The winds were not hurricane-force. A Category 1, right beside New Orleans, could have been much, much worse.
Also, the wall I'm talking about is scheduled to be improved, so it's clear officials realize it's inadequate. The obvious question is, why is such a small and vital project uncompleted after three years?
It doesn't make sense to call Katrina's flooding an act of God. It was the result of inept planning. It was preventable. It was a known hazard. They expected a storm like Katrina.
It's an act of God if baseball-sized hail hits your house; if your house has no roof, and you get a concussion, the fault is yours.
That's not really right. This was a fairly weak storm about 70 miles away. It wasn't even close to a worst case. The winds were not hurricane-force. A Category 1, right beside New Orleans, could have been much, much worse.
Also, the wall I'm talking about is scheduled to be improved, so it's clear officials realize it's inadequate. The obvious question is, why is such a small and vital project uncompleted after three years?
It doesn't make sense to call Katrina's flooding an act of God. It was the result of inept planning. It was preventable. It was a known hazard. They expected a storm like Katrina.
It's an act of God if baseball-sized hail hits your house; if your house has no roof, and you get a concussion, the fault is yours.
My reply:
OK, so change the questions and I'll change the answers.
How many hurricanes have hit NOLA in the last 100 years? Looks like 6 had at least some effect on NOLA.
One of the reasons Katrina hurt so bad was that it had been so long since the last serous hit (regardless of what they call the drinks at Pat O'Brien's, and regardless of repeated government warnings) many people did not take the possibility seriously, and put more assets in harm's way. So to those who placed the assets and built the wall, Katrina was unexpected. Just like we don't "expect" earthquakes in So Cal, but we keep living here and building here, knowing that no matter how ruggedized we make our infratsructure, or how otherwise prepared we think we are, sooner or later "the big one" will humble us all.
Based on known data, worst case has to include any hurricane anywhere near NOLA and this wall, because hurricanes so rarely hit the city hard enough to hurt. So the wall is perfectly adequate in all but worst cases.
The assets protected by the wall are below sea level. The only reason they are there is because the cumulative benefit of being there outweighs the cost of possible loss. The alternative is to move the assets to higher ground, or build a storm-resistant platform for them. Risk/return.
How long was the wall there and doing its job? How much improving will they do, at what cost? Double thick, 3 feet higher? Triple thick, 5 foot higher? Just big enough to prevent damage from another Katrina, but no bigger? What if a Cat 5 hits after the wall is upgraded, and it fails?
Why is it uncompleted after 3 years? Without actually knowing, we can suppose that it is a) not as vital as other priorities, and b) not as small a job as you indicate.
Of course the flooding was predictable - the city is below sea level. Not calling Katrina an Act of God but ginning up a house with no roof analogy to support your thinking is plain silly. What if the hail comes through a skylight or window? That's what happened to my Nebraska relatives. The house had been there 70 years with no hail or tornado damage ever, but by your reasoning they are irresponsible boobs.
How many hurricanes have hit NOLA in the last 100 years? Looks like 6 had at least some effect on NOLA.
One of the reasons Katrina hurt so bad was that it had been so long since the last serous hit (regardless of what they call the drinks at Pat O'Brien's, and regardless of repeated government warnings) many people did not take the possibility seriously, and put more assets in harm's way. So to those who placed the assets and built the wall, Katrina was unexpected. Just like we don't "expect" earthquakes in So Cal, but we keep living here and building here, knowing that no matter how ruggedized we make our infratsructure, or how otherwise prepared we think we are, sooner or later "the big one" will humble us all.
Based on known data, worst case has to include any hurricane anywhere near NOLA and this wall, because hurricanes so rarely hit the city hard enough to hurt. So the wall is perfectly adequate in all but worst cases.
The assets protected by the wall are below sea level. The only reason they are there is because the cumulative benefit of being there outweighs the cost of possible loss. The alternative is to move the assets to higher ground, or build a storm-resistant platform for them. Risk/return.
How long was the wall there and doing its job? How much improving will they do, at what cost? Double thick, 3 feet higher? Triple thick, 5 foot higher? Just big enough to prevent damage from another Katrina, but no bigger? What if a Cat 5 hits after the wall is upgraded, and it fails?
Why is it uncompleted after 3 years? Without actually knowing, we can suppose that it is a) not as vital as other priorities, and b) not as small a job as you indicate.
Of course the flooding was predictable - the city is below sea level. Not calling Katrina an Act of God but ginning up a house with no roof analogy to support your thinking is plain silly. What if the hail comes through a skylight or window? That's what happened to my Nebraska relatives. The house had been there 70 years with no hail or tornado damage ever, but by your reasoning they are irresponsible boobs.
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THE GOOSE GETS GOING AS A GRAD
We got this note from The Goose letting us know how his first week of grad school went:
Well I finished my first week of classes and it looks like I will be quite busy this semester. Between my Software Engineering class and my Open Source Computing class, I will have plenty of work to do. For both classes, I need to go through a full software development cycle. That is to say, from idea, through development, to distribution. Of course, this is probably what I will be doing for most of the foreseeable future, so it is important.
I also got another TA job. At the beginning of my first class, my teacher pulled me aside and said, "You have already taken a more advanced version of this class and aced it. There are many students in this class and I need help grading. Could you also be my TA?" So I agreed. I had to drop the class and pick up another, but it wasn't a problem.
Matt, Tim, and I went to the Lincoln Park Zoo on Wednesday. It was pretty fun, especially since it was free. We saw the polar bears, penguins, monkeys, and others.
I am attaching a picture of me and the two guys I worked with at Argonne. Their names are Hui Jin and Carl Summers.
more...
I also got another TA job. At the beginning of my first class, my teacher pulled me aside and said, "You have already taken a more advanced version of this class and aced it. There are many students in this class and I need help grading. Could you also be my TA?" So I agreed. I had to drop the class and pick up another, but it wasn't a problem.
Matt, Tim, and I went to the Lincoln Park Zoo on Wednesday. It was pretty fun, especially since it was free. We saw the polar bears, penguins, monkeys, and others.
I am attaching a picture of me and the two guys I worked with at Argonne. Their names are Hui Jin and Carl Summers.
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WHITE LIGHTNING'S NEW MILL
My big brother Bob had to miss our Irish family party due to traffic, but he sends along links to photos of the new engine for his van White Lightning.
More about White Lightning here.
Jim, sorry we missed it... sounds like you guys had a great party!
Wow, you've been at yer blog for over a year now, where have I been? (but don't get a big head over it) [JBD - too late - like my brother Looie says, I have a five-head]
I liked the elec dirt bike, wait til Ian sees that!
Speaking of seeing, have you seen my new motor? Very 'Mad Max', it would fit right in at the Primer Nationals!
The second link is to a short movie, entitled "Second Gear Scratch." No, that's not an unfortunate medical condition. If you don't understand from the name alone, watch & listen.Wow, you've been at yer blog for over a year now, where have I been? (but don't get a big head over it) [JBD - too late - like my brother Looie says, I have a five-head]
I liked the elec dirt bike, wait til Ian sees that!
Speaking of seeing, have you seen my new motor? Very 'Mad Max', it would fit right in at the Primer Nationals!
More about White Lightning here.
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03:24 PM
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